1. This presentation is widely based on the analytical research - still to be refined and completed - made by the EDU analysts.
The product bears therefore the effects of an important limitation set by the Ministerial Agreement of 2nd June 1993 establishing EDU and the Joint Action adopted within the so-called "Third pillar" of the Maastricht Treaty - by the Ministers of Justice and of the Interior on 9 March 1995 - that prevents EDU analysts from having access to personal data: in certain instances that has severely restricts the possibility of a more detailed and in depth analysis.
Much attention must be paid to the following point.
In illustrating the illicit drug supplies it is more and more difficult to limit oneself to the production of the different substances, to the routes used by traffickers, to the quantities of drug seized, to the prices on the illegal market, to the number of drug-related deaths etc.
This approach needs to be commented:
- no criminal phenomenon is so trans-national as drug trafficking;
- production sources have become diversified in the recent years;
- designer drugs are becoming more and more common in the illicit markets;
- the traffickers are differentiating and mixing the various routes used;
- more sophisticated modi operandi are being used to conceal drugs during transport.
Drug traffickers seem to follow the old saying of Mao Tse Tung: "Big confusion under the sky; excellent situation".
At present, much more attention has to be paid to criminal organisations and their role in drug-trafficking.
Organised crime is a multi-commodity business and the organised criminal groups invest the proceeds from their activities in new legal or illegal enterprises. This has an impact on the effectiveness of law enforcement initiatives against organised crime. It is important to be able to draw a general picture of organised crime enterprises. Focusing on a single aspect will affect the overall picture.
This does not lessen the importance and danger of drug trafficking within the criminal and economic context. What is meant here is that drug trafficking is not the only business of criminal organisations, even if it is still the most lucrative.
On the contrary, the awareness of the seriousness of the world drug situation has urged the International community to take measures for a more concrete co-operation - the level of which could hardly be conceived before. Efforts have been gradually made to apply such measures - although with some hesitation - to other forms of trans-national organised crimes.
Within the limits of the time available and trying not to repeat concepts easily available from the open sources, the following aspects will be stressed in relation to the topic we have to deal with.
Our approach is to deal with one item per country and study some criminal organisations taking into account the need to avoid overlapping with other contributions that are to follow in the programme.

2. Cocaine
Colombia still remains the world's biggest cocaine trafficking country although the leadership has switched from the violence-led Medellin cartel to the non-violent Cali cartel which has succeeded in altering the attitude of Colombian society towards drugs. Now the Cali cartel has gained control, the moves toward eradicating the drug problem may be hindered as links to drug money could be considered "acceptable", in the light of the supposedly non-violent way the money is obtained.
Corruption, however, is widespread and infiltration by cartel members into security services and other areas of administration is a major cause for concern. It has also been rumoured that the president and other candidates received substantial financial backing from the Cali cartel in the presidential elections.
Crime continues to rise within the country particularly in Cali where previously low level drug traffickers are no longer under the same control from the Cali cartel leaders. With the possible surrender of their leaders there may be a more rapid loss of control over the junior members. In contrast Medellin may emerge from the cloud created by the cartel leaders and once again become the hard working financial and industrial centre it used to be.
Colombia is the major source of cocaine production. The majority of the base material, coca paste, however, comes from Peru and Bolivia although reaction by the Peruvian army is beginning to force the cartels to produce their own coca paste.
Converting the paste into cocaine requires expensive techniques which are normally difficult to obtain thus restricting this part of the process to selected organisations. The Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC) are known to grow coca leaves and have also set up their own refining laboratories, "diverting" chemicals from local industries. This transition has seen the cartels specialising in the shipping and marketing of cocaine, the most profitable area of the drug trafficking business. Many laboratories have been destroyed in recent years, although their number has recently dropped considerably, due in part to the traffickers moving their operations further into the jungle. Besides having to cope with the cocaine problem the Authorities are now facing an increase in the cultivation of the opium poppy.
The established Colombian cartels based in Medellin and Cali still pose a major threat to Western Europe. The demise of the leader of the Medellin cartel has switched the leadership away from this violent group to the more peaceful methods of the Cali cartel. Nevertheless Colombian cocaine continues to dominate the drug markets of the Western world, suggesting that the problems in Colombia have not affected the flow of cocaine into Europe, regardless of the impressive seizure figures of 1994.
In the US the Cali cartel has a hierarchical structure and it is better organised than the Medellin cartel who have a decision-making-based structure. They are all well organised, however, and the ultimate control comes from Colombia. There is no reason to suggest why this form of control does not exist in Europe. Europe is now considered to be a single and very lucrative market and drugs enter at any point from where they can be distributed in a controlled way. Intelligence sources indicate that representatives of the cartels are to be found at many of the entry points to control the shipments and help the distribution. Once the shipment has arrived, transport of the cocaine throughout Europe does not represent a problem, it may happen by air, sea, or overland, as well as through the mail. Any representative who attracts the attention of law enforcement officers or makes mistakes can quickly and easily be replaced.
Colombians, Italians and Spaniards are primarily responsible for the importation of cocaine into Europe. The connection between cartel members and organised crime groups in Europe, particularly with the Italian Mafia, was established many years ago. Spain continues to dominate the area of importation directly into Europe, although there are indications of a significant amount of cocaine entering Italy and Southern European countries. Intelligence now indicates that the cartels are establishing links with crime syndicates in Central Europe with the ultimate aim of supplying drugs to Western Europe. Cocaine is arriving by ship in Russia, Ukraine, Rumania and Bulgaria, the Russian delivery being transported by road or rail through Poland or Scandinavia. The Bulgarian and Rumanian routes are believed to be the same as for the heroin traffic. Consignments from Ukraine are probably transiting Poland for onward delivery throughout Germany.
An emerging phenomenon is the production of heroin in Colombia, under the control of the Cali cartel, which is being trafficked into the US, in direct competition with the product from South East Asia. Colombian heroin is often of a better quality and cheaper than the Asian product, perhaps an incentive for dealers and users to swap "brands". Using the established cocaine networks the cartel has found it easy to diversify into this new commodity and Europe must be aware of the rising problem and if necessary take steps to counter the spread of this product from the Americas.
Peru, often referred to as a "narco-state", is the largest coca producer in the world having both legal and illegal plantations. The illegally produced coca paste is mainly destined to Colombian cartels in order to be manufactured into cocaine. Corruption is prevalent with the vast majority of the army earning large sums of money from the traffickers by allowing "free" movement of the drugs throughout the country.
A major seizure of over 3 metric tons of cocaine chlorydrate in Northern Peru has seen another emerging trend. A Peruvian criminal family group who previously used to supplie cocaine paste to the Medellin cartel has now started to set up its own export network, linking in with the Mexican crime groups. The most interesting point is the supposed involvement with the Japanese Yakuza, a scenario that needs to be carefully monitored.
With an infrastructure which is almost totally corrupted the prospect of overcoming the problems of drug trafficking in Peru is loosing credibility.
Bolivia is the second largest producer of coca paste in the world and, like Peru, it has both legal and illegal growers. Again the illegally produced crop is for Colombia and Brazil for the manufacturing of cocaine.
Brazil has emerged as a major transit area for cocaine with many traffickers being intercepted upon leaving San Paulo airport. Both cocaine paste and refined cocaine are primarily obtained from Bolivia, while Colombia is another source. Drug abuse within Brazil is on the increase and with it comes an increase in crime levels. Cocaine has never been so cheap and this obviously has an impact upon those who wish to trade in Europe.
Intelligence sources suggest that cocaine from Brazil now enters former Portuguese colonies in Africa for shipment to Central and Western Europe.

It has long been recognised that the Caribbean area is a haven for organised crime, who use it as a centre for money laundering and as a drug transit area.
The Caribbean geography and multiple entry and exit points offer a variety of routes to smuggle narcotics to Europe. Sea and air links with Europe and Latin America, especially Venezuela, offer opportunities for clandestine shipments of drugs, but the Caribbean area, including the Dutch West Indies has recently been more important for money laundering opportunities. Dutch St Maarten has in recent years been increasingly used for the shipment of drugs. In addition to this, criminals have used St Maarten/St Martin for the opportunities available there for the laundering of funds through casinos and other enterprises.

3. Heroin
Developments are occurring in certain South-Eastern Asian countries, namely Cambodia, Myanmar and North Korea but their impact upon EU countries is difficult to assess in detail.
Thailand is considered an important country for the production and transit of drugs coming to the EU.
Considering the Golden Crescent, Afghanistan is one of the largest producers of illicit opium in the world and the main source of cannabis resin that is smuggled into Pakistan to be further transported to Europe. The opium harvest in 1994 amounted to about 3200 metric tons. The sale of the country's opium production amounts to an estimated 220 million US dollars annually. Around the border with Pakistan, a tribal area which is difficult to control, it is believed that there are around 100 laboratories where opium is being processed into heroin.
Like Afghanistan, Pakistan is also a cannabis producing country, with cultivation mainly concentrated in the North-Western border province. Large quantities of cannabis destined for Europe are transported via seaports to Africa. Pakistan's opium production is estimated at 140-180 tonnes annually. Hashish production totals an estimated 500 tons annually. The heroin and cannabis sales total 5% of Pakistan's domestic product. As the drug production areas are concentrated in inaccessible areas near autonomous tribal zones of Pakistan and the fact the drug trafficking tribes are well armed, national authorities encounter serious difficulties in combatting the drug trafficking problem. Pakistan is trying to show Western observers that it is committed to fighting the problem. In January 1995 authorities froze assets worth $ 70 million owned by seven alleged drug barons and raided heroin labs in the tribal Khyber region, near the rugged Afghan border. This operation netted 428 kg of heroin and 165 tonnes of hashish.

4. Cannabis
Morocco is the world's leading producer and exporter of cannabis with much of the cultivation taking place in the Rif mountain range. Hashish production is estimated at 3,000-5,000 tonnes annually, with bulk quantities being shipped along the Mediterranean sea route. Intelligence sources state that West African countries such as Senegal and the Côte d'lvoire are being used as transit points for hashish shipments from Morocco ultimately destined for Europe. Recently Morocco has begun to consume and deal with cocaine and heroin, as well as amphetamines and barbiturates. In 1994, 45 out of 102 seizures of cannabis recorded in the Weekly Intelligence report from Interpol, where the originating country was known, it could be directly attributed to Morocco.
Algeria is known as a transit country for Moroccan hashish destined for Europe as well as having a limited cannabis production of its own.
It is believed Islamic Fundamentalists are actively involved in drug dealing to provide funds to cause problems in France, although there are links with the UK and Germany. The recent fall in hashish seizures could be a result of the increasing sophistication of the drug networks, which have allegedly been taken over by these groups.
Nigeria is the largest country in West Africa and potentially the richest, although problems with crime, widespread corruption, political instability and ethnic tensions only help to fuel the rise of criminal groups. Although the potential for wealth has always been present, it cannot be fully exploited. In contrast with this, there is no system of social security for the poorest that then face particular hardships, thus creating the desire to turn to crime for survival. To many it is a way of life developed from an early age and for some these exploits have spread overseas resulting in the emergence of well organised Nigerian criminals based throughout the EU who have strong allegiance to their home country.
Ghana has very close links with Nigeria and many Nigerian criminal groups are actively involved with Ghana nationals. Heroin from both South West and South East Asia is sent in freight concealments into Ghana for onward shipment to the EU, a trend also seen in Nigeria.
Intelligence sources indicate that Nigerian criminals continue to pose a threat to the EU and their groups are becoming more sophisticated in their approach to organised crime. While it is recognised that they are criminally active in their own country, Nigerian criminals have now established themselves in many major towns and cities throughout Europe. Fuelled by the desire to make money as quickly as possible they are exploiting any commercial area to satisfy their needs.
Although they never restrict themselves to one particular criminal activity, they are known for their enterprising skills in drug trafficking and fraud, their fraud-based activities are aimed at funding the purchase of drugs. During the late 1980's many Nigerian nationals were among the heroin smugglers arrested at European airports. Over the last few years however this trend has moved towards the trafficking of cocaine. Intelligence sources now indicate that Nigerian criminals are exchanging heroin for cocaine both in South America and the USA, returning to Europe with a potentially more profitable commodity. The Nigerian groups tend to purchase heroin in South East Asia, and intelligence indicates they may have linked up with warlords in Burma. The cancellation of direct flights from Nigeria to JFK airport in the USA in 1993 disrupted the heroin smuggling activities of Nigerian traffickers who had to look for other ways of entering the US. Nigerian controlled couriers started using Europe and other West African routes also entering through Canada. Since October 1994 Ghana airways have been operating flights directly into JFK, effectively re-opening the direct route, thus allowing Nigerian-controlled couriers to exploit the US markets again.
It is not clear how well organised they were in drug-trafficking during the 1980s but more recent developments indicate an exceptional ability in identifying the more profitable markets and exploit their potential. This entails a well established criminal organisation able to exchange information quickly about the fluctuations in the drug market. Their adaptability is borne out by the emergence of "spray parties" where co-ordinators of Nigerian criminal groups from all over Europe meet to exchange ideas. Armed with each other's knowledge on all aspects of crime, including the legal aspects in each country, the co-ordinators can quickly adapt and respond to change in order to exploit an area of criminal activity to its full potential. The criminals present at these meetings are often linked through tribal or family ties and their organisations are therefore very difficult to infiltrate. On the contrary Nigerian criminals are believed to have infiltrated or have the ability to infiltrate any organisation able to be exploited. This threat is perhaps more worrying than crime itself because any law enforcement initiative against these groups is nipped in the bud.
Effective targeting of Nigerian individuals involved in smuggling has given rise to the trend of either recruiting other nationalities, especially South Africans or Hungarians or using South African or other passports to avoid detection in order to smuggle cocaine into Europe. This links in with another method of using two couriers, one of which travels to the source country where he meets the second courier who takes the drugs to the final destination.
Reported links with Hungarians coincide with recent intelligence reports about Nigerians having Central European connections often through attending universities in the Central Europe countries. A recent worrying trend is the number of Russian-speaking Nigerian criminals resident in the London area involved in all forms of criminal activities. This connection with Russia is further observed in intelligence reports indicating Nigerians are trafficking via Moscow moving cocaine between Latin America and Africa.
Middle East is a very sensitive area even for drug production and trafficking, especially in Lebanon, where in 1993 the total area under cannabis cultivation was between 1,500 and 2,000 hectares. Profits from cannabis and poppy production and hashish and heroin trafficking are in the order of $ 500 million, the largest portion of which goes to dealers and their protectors reportedly including members of parliament and "politicians". In the Bekaa Valley and Beirut laboratories process heroin and cocaine chlorhydrate.

5. Looking more in depth at the European situation, we have to stress that approximately 70-80% of all heroin for Western Europe is transported via the Balkan route. An estimated 10% of the Balkan traffic of heroin from South-East Asia to both Eastern and Western Europe now passes through Central Asia and the likelihood is for this to increase. The Asian areas of the former Soviet Union have the potential for huge cannabis and opium poppy harvest of their own. With a large number of well trained chemists without occupation, with access to well equipped laboratories, the new states of Central and Eastern Europe may become leading areas for the production of synthetic drugs. Organised crime groups from Central, Eastern and Western Europe have been observed to form alliances to enhance their criminal activities, especially in the illicit drug trade.
In terms of the criminal impact upon the European Union, Rumania is becoming a cocaine turntable for transit imports into Western Europe, a trend which has been identified since 1993. Especially the Russian "racket" gangs and to a lesser extent Ukrainian groups are active in the major cities engaging in both high profile robberies and the more insidious forms of organised extortion. Rumania hosts a comparatively high proportion of Chinese Triad members that differ significantly from their United Kingdom counterparts, in that they originate from mainland China, with links to mainland China Triads and engage in drug-trafficking and murder in order to enforce internal discipline and ensure the monopoly of criminal enterprises.
Bulgaria is in a state of political uncertainty, as other Central and Eastern European States. Law enforcement authorities are currently identifying the emergence of domestic organised criminal groups that are expanding on a regional basis within Bulgaria accompanied by a rapidly increasing crime wave of organised burglaries in the large cities. Its current and future impact upon the EU lies in its transit nature for heroin trafficking, particularly by Turkish groups, many of which have direct links with Turkey, and longterm transfer of largescale illicit funds.
Turkish criminals have established themselves throughout Europe and now pose a major threat to the EU. Their involvement in drugs and particularly in heroin is well publicised and it is estimated that 85% of the heroin entering the EU comes from Turkey, originating from the golden crescent region of Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. The drug is refined in Turkey and then transported to Western Europe via various routes, including the Balkan route, often ending up in the large Turkish communities in the major towns and cities of the EU, particularly Germany, where further distribution takes place.
The Turkish groups are extremely well organised and in the majority family-controlled, and it is estimated that the number of major families involved is between 15-20. These families help to establish other family members in towns and cities of importance throughout the EU in order to maintain control of the commodity. The Turkish criminal families collaborate with each other as well as whit other foreigners, particularly Iranians, Albanians and nationals from the former Yugoslavia, and have established a well controlled and successful operation over many years. Although many members of the families have been identified and arrested, and large seizures made, the trade still continues to flourish leading to the conclusion that disruption has made little impact upon the organisations who are able to cope with both major and minor setbacks. Using their networks all EU countries are affected.
Trends in the methods of transportation have altered over the past few years, particularly as certain methods have become well known to law enforcement officers partly through the increased effectiveness of the exchange of information between agencies on the Balkan route. The almost exclusive use of TIR trucks with Turkish drivers has now significantly decreased and recruitment of other European nationals driving vans and private cars has prevailed.
Recent seizures of heroin in France give a strong indication that Kosovo Albanians are purchasing the drug from Turkish traffickers and will later exchange it for weapons, possibly in Italy.

6. In examining closely the situation in the European Union countries, in general the illicit drug market in the EU shows an increase in the volume of drugs that are being trafficked by a growing number of groups and individuals engaged in criminal activities who make use of routes and methods which are continuously being adapted to changing circumstances. Heroin seizures reached a peak of 5,859 KGs. in 1991, before falling back to little over the 1990 level of 4,757 KGs. in 1993. The amount of cocaine seized in 1990 was more than twice the amount of 1989 and has stayed this high level, the figure for 1993 indicate that the amount of cocaine seized was 16,305 KGs. Cannabis seizures show a steady rise from 273,815 KGs. in 1988 to 572,536 KGs. in 1993. Psychotropic substances such as MDA, MDEA, MDMA and Amphetamines have a major place in the illicit European drug manufacture and distribution, partly as a result of the increasing popularity of rave/house parties. The Netherlands are regarded as the main European exporter of synthetic stimulants mainly to the Northern European countries and the United Kingdom, although laboratories have been detected in other countries. France and Germany are believed to be important transit countries. All illicit drugs show increasing degrees of purity at stable or even decreasing prices.
The Netherlands are regarded as the major country for the production of hydroponically cultivated cannabis which has a higher THC content than cannabis from the traditional production areas. Recent information however, indicates that Nederweed is produced in ever increasing amounts in the UK, Belgium and Germany. It is expected that the illicit production of Nederweed in these countries will increase because a high quality product can be produced with limited risk of detection. The constant process of developing and refining of indoor cultivation techniques will only serve to increase the problem. Small scale production has been uncovered in Spain, France, Ireland and Portugal. Intelligence sources state that known Scandinavian criminals have visited Dutch hydroponics laboratories to obtain the knowledge and skill to build laboratories themselves.

7. If these are the recent developments in drug trafficking, will it be possible to foresee the future scenario ?
With Central and Eastern European countries now becoming more involved in Europe as a whole, a new area of criminal opportunities have opened up to organised crime groups from both East and West to transport drugs to the EU.
Central and Eastern European as well as Central Asian countries are expected to play an increasing role in the production and trade of illicit synthetic drugs. Poland already is a large producer of amphetamines. Former Soviet Union States possess advanced chemical industries and freely available precursor materials that provide fertile ground for setting up illegal laboratories to apply chemical methods in narcotic drug production, facilitating production in the West.
It can be expected that within EU Member States more and more areas of drug production will emerge especially of synthetic drugs and hydroponically cultivated drugs, which will be consumed both inside and outside the EU.
Future developments will not be favourable without considering the following elements:
- differences in the national policies in relation to drug abuse and law enforcement activities related to drugs hamper the effectiveness of the fight against the drug business;
- corruption spreading out not only in developing countries but also in more developed countries affects all layers of society, including those involved in law enforcement sector that are lowpaid;
- the ambiguous policy of some producing countries that use drug co-operation to blackmail major drug consuming countries;
- the public lack of concern for the drug problem, very often fed by disinformation campaigns carried out by those who support the liberalisation of drugs;
- an inadequate and effective international co-ordination in the fight against drug traffickers;
- the lack of a real culture of international co-operation in the field of "intelligence".